Gas Prices’ Seasonal Stall
WASHINGTON & GAITHERSBURG, Md. — As autumn leaves begin to fall, gasoline prices will likely continue their decline but possibly at a slower rate.
The national average retail price for regular gasoline rose slightly during the past week to $2.29 per gallon, after 37 consecutive days of declines, according to Washington, D.C.-based AAA. In fact, prices fell 20 cents per gallon (CPG) over the past month thanks to low crude prices, slowing demand in the United States and a seasonal move to winter-blend gasoline, which is less expensive to produce.
On average, national retail gasoline prices are down $1.05 per gallon from the same time last year, and at their lowest level since 2004, according to AAA.
Industry observers expect a busier-than-normal refinery maintenance season this fall because the facilities had been running at longer, above-average rates this past summer. Gasoline price declines might slow and even reverse direction as maintenance gets into full swing this fall. But AAA expects the current oversupply of gasoline to keep prices relatively low.
Five states saw averages below $2 per gallon at the start of this week, including South Carolina ($1.96), Mississippi ($1.96), New Jersey ($1.98), Alabama ($1.98) and Tennessee ($1.99). The highest state averages were in Alaska at $3.04 per gallon, followed by California ($2.99), Nevada ($2.94), Hawaii ($2.90) and Utah ($2.70).
Thirty states and Washington, D.C., enjoyed price drops over the past week, according to AAA, with the biggest decline in Alaska (down 10 CPG), followed by Idaho and Colorado, both off 8 CPG. In 20 states, retail price averages were up week-over-week, led by Indiana at 13 CPG, and Kentucky and Michigan, both up 9 CPG.
From a monthly basis, the retail regular gasoline average has fallen by double digits in 46 states and Washington, D.C. In 10 states, prices fell 25 CPG or more, led by Alaska (down 38 CPG), California (down 37 CPG), Oregon (down 35 CPG) and Washington (down 34 CPG).
From a year-over-year perspective, retail averages fell in every state and Washington, D.C. In 33 states and D.C., prices are off $1 or more per gallon. The biggest discounts are in Hawaii ($1.31), Connecticut ($1.23) and Vermont ($1.22).
According to a report from petroleum analysts at fuel-price information service GasBuddy, Gaithersburg, Md., average retail gasoline prices fell 22 CPG in September, matching August’s price decline from July. In California, prices fell 39 CPG from a month ago to settle at $2.99 per gallon. Hawaii saw the biggest year-over-year decline, off $1.31 to rest at $2.89 per gallon. In 20 states, the average was at $2.25 per gallon or less, while six states—South Carolina, Mississippi, New Jersey, Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee—had averages below $2.
“With little change anticipated in overall supply & demand fundamentals and the benchmark crude (West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opening today just below $45 per gallon we anticipate nominal but consistent decline this week in nearly all markets,” the GasBuddy analysts reported.
